Bounded Uncertainty Models in Finance: Parameter Estimation and Forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we consider the problem of modelling observed data using a class of multivariate models with unknown-but-bounded (ubb) noise and uncertainty. Standard ARX models with additive and multiplicative bounded noise belong to the considered class, as well as the deterministic counterpart of ARCH models extensively used in econometrics. We outline a method to fit these models based on historical data, and discuss the issues of set-valued forecasting.
منابع مشابه
Behavioral Finance Models and Behavioral Biases in Stock Price Forecasting
Stock market is affected by news and information. If the stock market is not efficient, the reaction of stock price to news and information will place the stock market in overreaction and under-reaction states. Many models have been already presented by using different tools and techniques to forecast the stock market behavior. In this study, the reaction of stock price in the stock market was ...
متن کاملEstimation of Scale Parameter Under a Bounded Loss Function
The quadratic loss function has been used by decision-theoretic statisticians and economists for many years. In this paper the estimation of scale parameter under a bounded loss function, which is adequate for assessing quality and quality improvement, is considered with restriction to the principles of invariance and risk unbiasedness. An implicit form of minimum risk scale equivariant ...
متن کاملComparing the performance of GARCH (p,q) models with different methods of estimation for forecasting crude oil market volatility
The use of GARCH models to characterize crude oil price volatility is widely observed in the empirical literature. In this paper the efficiency of six univariate GARCH models and two methods of estimation the parameters for forecasting oil price volatility are examined and the best method for forecasting crude oil price volatility of Brent market is determined. All the examined models in this p...
متن کاملTruncated Linear Minimax Estimator of a Power of the Scale Parameter in a Lower- Bounded Parameter Space
Minimax estimation problems with restricted parameter space reached increasing interest within the last two decades Some authors derived minimax and admissible estimators of bounded parameters under squared error loss and scale invariant squared error loss In some truncated estimation problems the most natural estimator to be considered is the truncated version of a classic...
متن کاملHydrological Drought Forecasting Using Stochastic Models (Case Study: Karkheh watershed Basin)
Hydrological drought refers to a persistently low discharge and volume of water in streams and reservoirs, lasting months or years. Hydrological drought is a natural phenomenon, but it may be exacerbated by human activities. Hydrological droughts are usually related to meteorological droughts, and their recurrence interval varies accordingly. This study pursues to identify a stochastic model (o...
متن کامل